Week 1 Match-Ups & Predictions

August 26, 2025

Your go-to Week 1 preview is here. 7 standout matchups, model-backed picks, and early weekend bonus bets included.

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I can't think of many better weekends on the calendar than the one we're blessed with this week.
If each game lasts about three hours, that means starting Thursday at 5:30 p.m. ET and running through the end of Monday night’s matchup, football will be on for 65 out of the next 102 hours. That leaves you, on average, just 7 hours a day to sleep--and maybe 2 hours to restock snacks and drinks.
I'll leave predicting winners for all 43 FBS v FBS games to our model and instead dive into 7 of my favorite match-ups for this glorious weekend ahead.

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Utah @ UCLA

This match-up is flying under the radar, with both teams unranked and kickoff not scheduled until 11 p.m. ET on Saturday. Still, our model was intrigued by this late-night showdown—it’s one of just four games we flagged as a “toss-up,” with a final prediction margin within 1/100th of a percent. In other words: too close to call.
That said, Utah being favored by 6.5 points feels steep for a game that our model sees as dead even.
In these breakdowns, I’ll often reference returning usage, production, efficiency metrics, and more—because, after all, we haven’t seen these teams take the field yet.
Utah does enter the season slightly ahead of UCLA in both SP+ and FPI ratings, but the margin isn’t huge. Meanwhile, UCLA returns a larger share of last year’s PPA output—beating the Utes by just under 8%.
I’m not confident the Bruins pull off the win outright, but I do like them to cover. I’m also curious to see how Tennessee transfer Nico Iamaleava performs after a rocky offseason.
Model Pick: Toss-Up
KnowBall Pick: UCLA +6.5
UPDATE: This line has shifted to +5.5 since originally posted.

Northwestern @ Tulane

This is another game that probably won’t get much airtime on the pregame shows—but it’s one I had to call out because I think the line is way off. Vegas currently has Tulane favored by just 5.5 points. That feels far too close for a team that climbed as high as #17 in last year’s CFB Playoff Committee rankings.
Tulane returns over 60% of its offensive production from a unit that finished 2024 ranked in the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Northwestern brings back just four offensive starters from a team that ranked 118th in that same category.
Our model favors Tulane head-to-head with a 3-out-of-4 confidence rating—and I’m taking the points, too.
Model Pick: Tulane
KnowBall Pick: Tulane -5.5

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Auburn @ Baylor

Two of the most intriguing teams heading into the season square off Friday night in Waco, TX. Both rank in the Top 25 in returning production, with Baylor sitting 4th in our WREP Score (Weighted Returning Efficiency & PPA)1.
Auburn, coming off a 5–7 season, will need to clean up some of the costly mistakes that plagued them last year—while also debuting their new QB, Jackson Arnold, a high-upside transfer from Oklahoma. Despite his talent, Arnold struggled on the road last season, averaging five sacks per game and posting a QBR of just 49.3 in losses to LSU, Missouri, and Ole Miss.
That track record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence as the junior heads back to East Texas for Auburn’s first big test.
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On the other side of the ball, the Baylor Bears return both their starting QB, Sawyer Robertson, and leading rusher, Bryson Washington. Sawyer threw for over 3,000 yards last season while maintaining a 62.2% completion rate. Washington, an incredibly efficient RB, averaged 5.9 yards-per-carry, being handed the ball 175 times and never turning it over once.
The line is set at Auburn -2.5, though our model takes Baylor with a 3-out-of-4 confidence rating. I'm locked in with a team that has had more experience playing with each other--especially at home. Give me the Bears ML.
Model Pick: Baylor
KnowBall Pick: Baylor ML

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Georgia Tech @ Colorado

Hard to believe it was over a year ago that the Yellow Jackets set the tone for what would be a miserable year for the folks down in Tallahassee, FL when they kicked a game-winning field goal to knock off Florida State in Dublin. (Side Bar: The kick-off in Dublin is awful. Put a bowl game there if you want, but playing an international game in a city where the locals don't even know what a touchdown is and teams have to ship a metric ton of gatorade seems like a bit of a reach.)

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Brent Key’s squad returns in 2025 poised for another strong campaign, bringing back 64% of last season’s production—good for 26th nationally. They also sit 14th in our WREP Score, retaining 81% of the total PPA from a team that beat Florida State, Miami, and pushed Georgia to overtime in Athens.
They’ll head to Boulder to face a Colorado team entering a new era without Shedeur Sanders under center and without one of the most electrifying players the game has seen in Travis Hunter. Coach Prime will be looking to re-establish momentum, but he’ll do so with a very different roster.
Oddsmakers expect a tight one, with Georgia Tech favored by just 4.5 points. Our model agrees—calling this a close match-up, but with a slight edge to the Yellow Jackets. I think Brent Key escapes Folsom Field with the win, but it’ll be competitive. I’m taking Buffaloes +4.5.
Model Pick: Georgia Tech
KnowBall Pick: Colorado +4.5
Bonus: If you're just looking to really sweat this one out, SGP GT ML (-198) and CU +4.5 (-108) at +480.

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LSU @ Clemson

Our second of the top ten match-ups this weekend. Brian Kelly's Tigers will travel from Death Valley to take on Dabo's Tigers in...Death Valley.

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LSU has had some pretty gut-wrenching Week 1 openers in recent years—falling to USC in 2024, Florida State in both 2022 and 2023, UCLA in 2021, and Mississippi State in 2020. In fact, the last time LSU won a season opener was back when Joe Burrow was launching the most dominant season in college football history. If they were playing any of the other 130 FBS teams, I’d likely pick them to win. But not Clemson. Not on the road. Not in Week 1. Not against a CFB Playoff-caliber team that finished last season with the 7th-highest offensive efficiency and is returning 16 starters.
This is a statement game for both programs. LSU has been teetering on the edge of a return to “elite” status for the past few years, while Dabo Swinney needs to show that last season’s relatively middling results were just a stepping stone toward something bigger in 2025. Neither team finished strong against the spread last year (LSU went 2–4; Clemson 2–3–1), and with a tight line at Clemson -4, I’m staying away from the points on this one.
That said, I believe Clemson takes it in what should be a classic heavyweight bout. If LSU’s defense can find a way to contain 3,600-yard passer Cade Klubnik and WR-turned-RB Adam Randall, it could get interesting.
Model Pick: Clemson
KnowBall Pick: Clemson ML
Bonus: Both of these teams have high-powered offenses who each averaged over 30 PPG last season, I'm also taking the over at 57.5.

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Texas @ Ohio State

Onto our final match-up preview, the pièce de résistance of the whole slate. #1 Texas traveling to Columbus to take on the defending national champion, Ohio State Buckeyes.
This game has been #1 on everyone's radar since it was announced. It's a rare Top 5 head-to-head so early in the season. There's a hundred different story lines to follow coming into this one--the latest being Ohio State banning Barstool' Sport's Founder, Dave Portnoy, from campus...and then unbanning him?
I think what we're not talking about enough though, is the fact that while we have two blue-bloods ready to battle it out, both teams have major holes to fill coming into this season--especially the Buckeyes.
"But the Buckeyes did lose a 4,000-yard passer (Will Howard), two 1,000-yard rushers (Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson), a 1,000-yard receiver (Emeka Egbuka), an All-American left tackle (Donovan Jackson), their top four defensive linemen (who combined for 49 tackles for loss) and four other defensive starters. And although this doesn't count in the returning production formula, they lost both coordinators too." -Bill Connelly, ESPN
Those players they lost on the defensive front are a major reason they had the success that they did last year. I mean, how differently could the season have gone if they didn't have this all-time goal line stand in Happy Valley? A three loss team with no conference championship bid probably wouldn't have even made the playoff last year.

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The same goes for the Longhorns. While the Arch Manning era is set to begin--it feels as if we've crowned him the Heisman after throwing the ball less than 100 times in regular season games. But whether he's going to air it out or do it with his legs, he's going to need someone to block for him. Texas lost four interior offensive linemen from last season, not to mention four defensive linemen, as well as several top wide receivers.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not here to simply rain on everyone's parade. Our blog from last week highlighted how returning usage is actually inconclusive when compared to post-season success. There's a reason these teams are ranked where they are, their programs have a history--and culture--of excellence. All I'm saying is that it's a little strange we're not talking much as a community about who isn't going to be on the field this weekend.
So let's switch gears and talk about who will be.
Texas is heading into this season with a dynamite defense and one of the best linebacker corps in the nation. They have one of the best young QB's in the game today, and they got some help from the portal.
Ohio State has arguably the two best players at their respective positions in the country with Jeremiah Smith (WR) and Caleb Downs (S). They're also tied wiith Alabama for the highest Blue-Chip Ratio2 in the country at 89%. Both teams had CFBP success last year, with Texas advancing to the semi-finals, and of course, Ohio State winning it all. They are each ranked in the FPI Top 4 to start the season, and are both favored to win 10 or more games. This is going to be a phenomenal match-up that will set the tone for the entire season.
Ohio State is favored by 2.5 points against the Longhorns, with a middling over-under set at 47.5. Before we get to the head-to-head, I want to share some supporting history on why I love the under in this game. In all four previous match-ups, Texas and OSU have never combined for more than 47 points. Both teams have gone under in their last two Week 1 games, and Big Ten teams have gone under in 77% of Week 1 contests over the last two years. As we mentioned earlier, Texas has a star-studded defense, while OSU has the best defensive back in the game, and both will be starting inexperienced quarterbacks.

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The model likes Ohio State with a moderate level of confidence. For me, I can't get over replacing both coordinators while starting a new QB with less than 5 NCAA pass attempts. I'm going to take the Longhorns ML.
Model Pick: Ohio State
KnowBall Pick: Under 47.5 & Texas ML

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Toss-Up Bonuses

As I mentioned earlier, there were a few match-ups tagged as toss-ups from our model. One of them being App State @ Charlotte, with App State being favored by 6.5 points. The odds here have shifted notably since they first came out. In July, you would have found App State ML at (-310), last week they had dropped to (-270), and today they sit at (-246). With the model calling this such a close contest, I'm leaning into Charlotte +6.5.
Another great opportunity this weekend is Wyoming @ Akron. Wyoming opened at (-310) and in the last 24 hours of writing this article, they've dipped from (-269) to (-212). Vegas has even shifted the line for the Cowboys from -6.5 to -5.5 in the last couple of days as well. Go lock in Akron +5.5 and thank me later.

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1WREP (Weighted Returning Efficiency & PPA) - A metric we derive from normalizing and weighting last year's efficiency & PPA against this year's returning usage and PPA. Used as an early indicator of success in place of in-season stats.

2Blue-Chip Ratio is a metric derived by Bud Elliott that measures a team's four and five start recruits, comparatively to two and three stars, and has analyzed how this ratio impacts a team's success. You can read a thorough explanation, along with this year's ratios here.